Corporate earnings from blue-chips like HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Donald Trump's swearing-in as the US President, and trading activity of foreign investors are the key factors to drive equity markets this week, analysts said. Trump will be sworn in as the US president for a second term on Monday. This week, several key Nifty-50 companies, including BPCL, HDFC Bank, Hindustan Unilever, Dr Reddy's, UltraTech Cement, JSW Steel and ICICI Bank are scheduled to announce their financial results.
Gold imports more than doubled in August to a record high of $10.06 billion, mainly on account of a drastic cut in customs duty and ongoing festive demand, according to the Commerce Ministry data. Gold imports stood at $4.93 billion in August 2023. On record high imports, Commerce Secretary Sunil Barthwal said that the tariff rates on gold have been reduced drastically so that smuggling and other activities can come down.
Among Sensex firms, NTPC, Axis Bank, Power Grid, Bharti Airtel, Eternal and Sun Pharma were the major gainers. However, Infosys, Titan, UltraTech Cement and Hindustan Unilever were among the laggards.
Any reduction in the customs duty on smartphone parts in the forthcoming budget will harm India's developing component ecosystem, discourage investment, increase imports, and make local firms uncompetitive, potentially resulting in job losses, think tank GTRI said on Tuesday. India's smartphone industry is a 'Make in India' success story, with 2023-24 production reaching $49.2 billion and exports at $15.6 billion, making smartphones the fourth-largest export after diesel, aviation fuel, and polished diamonds.
Shares of Billionbrains Garage Ventures, the parent of online broking platform Groww, soared nearly 30 per cent on their market debut on Wednesday, defying the recent trend of muted listings. The stock opened at Rs 112 and hit a high of Rs 134.4 before settling at Rs 128.85 on the NSE - a gain of 28.85 per cent over its issue price of Rs 100.
India and Israel on Tuesday signed a defence pact that will facilitate sharing of advanced technologies and promote co-development and co-production of key weapon systems and military hardware, in a major move to further bolster their already robust strategic ties.
The steep cut in Customs duty on silver in the FY25 Budget to 6 per cent from 15 per cent may provide the government temporary relief by checking the spurt in silver imports from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) under the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA). In FY24, silver imports from the UAE jumped to $1.7 billion from only $11.18 million in FY23, according to commerce department data. In May, about 87 per cent of India's silver imports came from Dubai.
As the Union government explores ways to restrict import of laptops and other electronic devices starting with a 5 per cent reduction from the current level, it is working to ensure that there's no supply disruption in India even if an import cap is introduced, it is learnt. The caveat assumes significance in the context of the government's announcement of its plan in August 2023 to issue licences for import of select IT hardware products to reduce the country's dependence on China.
India has reduced the time period for foreign investors to seek international arbitration from five years to three years as part of the recently signed investment pact with the United Arab Emirates (UAE), a departure from its model Bilateral Investment Treaty (BIT). Under the Investor-State Dispute Settlement (ISDS) mechanism, if the Indian judicial system is unable to resolve a dispute within this shortened period, investors can resort to international arbitration. The investment pact, signed on February 13 in Abu Dhabi, came into force on August 31, replacing the previous pact.
The government is formulating guidelines on the use of ethylene oxide (ETO) in samples of spices for the domestic market and exports, people aware of the matter said, as it plans to step up efforts to make quality checks more stringent. ETO, a flammable, colourless gas, is typically used as a disinfectant. It is also used as a sterilising agent and an insecticide to reduce microbial contamination in spices. However, its use is considered carcinogenic, beyond permissible limits.
Goods from sectors, including agriculture, precious stones, chemicals, pharma, medical devices, electricals, and machinery may get impacted if the US will go ahead with imposing reciprocal tariffs on Indian products, according to experts. They said that these sectors could face additional customs duties from the Trump administration because of the high tariff differential or gap, which is the difference between the import duties imposed by the US and India on a product.
The government has revised gold import data, bringing down numbers for November by $5 billion to $9.84 billion, possibly to rectify double accounting of inbound shipments. According to revised data of the commerce ministry arm Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics (DGCIS), gold import numbers have been slashed since April 2024, revealing excess imports of about $11.7 billion during the first eight months of 2024-25.
India and Russia have solidified a five-year plan to enhance their economic and trade partnership, while also addressing the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the threat of terrorism.
India's new climate pledge to the UN could be weakened by its growing use of coal, even as the country plans a 2035 roadmap to cut emissions and boost clean energy.
Foreign investors continue to pull back money from the Indian equity market, withdrawing Rs 24,753 crore (about $2.8 billion) in the first week of March amid escalating global trade tensions and lacklustre corporate earnings.
India's gain will be an additional business of $300 million to $400 million per month if 10-11% of Bangladesh's export is diverted to Indian hubs like Tiruppur.
Equity markets this week will turn their focus on the RBI's interest rate decision, Q1 earnings from several blue-chip firms and tariff-related news for further cues, analysts said. Moreover, trading activity of foreign investors and trends in global equity markets will also drive investors' sentiment.
'Should China's interest in the Teesta River projects be approved, it would likely result in heightened Chinese presence near the Siliguri corridor.'
Gold prices are likely to remain in a consolidation phase in the near term, but the overall bias will continue to stay positive amid heightened expectations of a US Federal Reserve rate cut in its September policy meeting, analysts said. Traders will closely track US macroeconomic data, such as Q2 GDP, PCE inflation, and speeches from Fed officials, which will provide more insights into the monetary policy stance of the Federal Reserve and the trajectory of the bullion sentiment, they added.
'As negotiations continue, the path forward demands not only diplomatic skill, but also vigilance against legal asymmetries embedded in America's trade playbook.'
From the Sensex constituents, Adani Ports, Tata Steel, Kotak Mahindra Bank, UltraTech Cement, Bajaj Finserv and Titan were among the biggest gainers. In contrast, Power Grid, Trent, NTPC, Maruti, HCL Tech and Bharat Electronics were among the laggards.
The "weaponisation" of economic activity - through tariffs and sanctions - is now a reality, with countries leveraging these tools strategically, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar said at the Raisina Dialogue recently.
Maruti, IndusInd Bank, Bajaj Finserv, Eternal, Mahindra & Mahindra, Tata Steel, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Titan, HDFC Bank, and NTPC were among the other major gainers. Bharti Airtel and Sun Pharma were the laggards.
The government on Thursday imposed import restrictions on laptops, tablets, all-in-one personal computers, ultra small form factor computers, and servers with immediate effect. The Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT) in a notification said exemption from import licensing is provided up to 20 items per consignment for R&D, testing, benchmarking and evaluation, repair and return and product development purposes.
Brent crude oil prices can touch $150 a barrel (bbl) - up a whopping 103 per cent from the current levels - in the worst-case scenario if the Israel-Iran geopolitical tensions escalate, suggest analysts.
Equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty fell on Friday, extending their downward journey to the third day, as investors continued to reel under pressure caused by the imposition of high tariffs and relentless foreign fund outflows.
'We continue to view India as a standout within EM.'
Indian exporters shipping goods to Israel may face higher insurance premiums and shipping costs due to the Israel-Hamas conflict, according to experts. Israel witnessed a surprise and unprecedented multifront attack by air, land and sea by the Hamas militant group, which rules the Gaza Strip, in its southern parts on Saturday morning. The International trade experts said the conflict may reduce the profits of domestic exporters but will not impact trade volumes unless war escalates.
More than a third of 83 mainboard IPOs this year ended their debut sessions in the red, with losses of up to 35 per cent.
'Indian markets may underperform global peers for the next two quarters.' 'But beyond that, India should catch up and resume its long-term growth path.'
The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) has identified around Rs 77,800 crore as "difficult-to-recover" or DTR dues in its annual report for 2024-25 (FY26), marking a nearly 2 per cent increase from the previous year. These dues remain unrecovered despite exhaustive recovery efforts.
Gold prices rose by Rs 70 to hit yet another record high of Rs 98,170 per 10 grams in the national capital on Thursday amid firm global demand, according to the All India Sarafa Association. On Wednesday, the precious metal of 99.9 per cent purity soared by Rs 1,650 to hit an all-time high of Rs 98,100 per 10 grams.
US President Donald Trump has proposed a deal to China that would see the sale of TikTok's US operations to an American buyer in exchange for a reduction in tariffs on Chinese exports to the US. The proposal comes amid a trade war between the two countries and follows China's retaliation of Trump's tariffs on Chinese goods. Trump has also said that tariffs are a powerful economic tool and that he is determined to ensure fair trade between the US and China.
From the 30 Sensex companies, Zomato, Tata Motors, IndusInd Bank, Asian Paints, Bajaj Finance, Maruti Suzuki India, Adani Ports, Hindustan Unilever, Reliance Industries, Bajaj Finserv, UltraTech Cement and Infosys were among the laggards. In contrast, State Bank of India, ICICI Bank, Tata Steel, NTPC, Tata Consultancy Services, PowerGrid, Kotak Mahindra Bank and Sun Pharmaceuticals were the gainers.
The defence minister also announced that India has taken up the challenge of developing a powerful indigenous aero-engine, adding that preparations for this critical project are now almost complete and the work will soon be visible.
Equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty tumbled in early trade on Monday amid heightened tensions in the Middle East after the US bombed three major nuclear sites in Iran. The 30-share BSE Sensex tumbled 705.65 points to 81,702.52 in early trade. The 50-share NSE Nifty dropped 182.85 points to 24,929.55.
The information technology (IT) services industry may be headed for another year of sluggish growth. Based on the results of the top five IT services companies for the first quarter of 2025-26 (Q1FY26), analysts say the possibility of hitting high single-digit revenue growth in FY26 looks unlikely.
Top government officials in New Delhi have started discussions with stakeholders ranging from shipping and container companies to export promotion councils to understand the impact of the Iran-Israel tensions and plan ahead. Inter-ministerial talks are also being lined up amid the crisis situation in West Asia, sources confirmed. While the crude flows are not directly under any threat, elevated oil prices remain a concern, according to officials.
India's gold and silver imports from its free trade agreement (FTA) partner UAE have skyrocketed 210 per cent to $10.7 billion in 2023-24 and there is a need to potentially revise the concessional customs duty rates under the pact to mitigate the arbitrage driving this surge, a report said on Monday. Economic think tank Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) said this sharp rise in gold and silver imports is primarily driven by import duty concessions granted by India to the UAE under the India-UAE Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA).
You can't be the second-most expensive market in the world and deliver just 10 per cent EPS growth, points out Akash Prakash.
